本文主要研究内容
作者陈倩（2019）在《基于成分数据GM（1,1）模型的重庆市医改后医疗费用结构变化趋势研究》一文中研究指出：目的:探讨2017年重庆市医改实施后医疗总费用及各医疗项目次均费用变化情况,评价成分数据GM(1,1)模型对医疗费用结构数据的适用性与合理性,并利用模型预测值与真实医改后医疗费用构成进行对比,以综合评价医改效果。方法:以重庆市医改实施时间(2017年9月9日)为节点,收集重庆市医改前一年及医改后半年的某三甲医院全院住院病例的医疗费用数据。为排除季节性病种不同对医疗费用的影响,比较同季节六个月的医改前后次均费用。并将医改前一年医疗费用构成数据进行成分数据等距对数转换后,建立成分GM(1,1)模型与成分残差GM(1,1)模型,采用残差检验法对模型精度进行评价。利用模型预测了如未发生医改的四个月医疗费用构成情况,与真实医改后医疗费用构成进行对比。最终结合次均费用与费用构成趋势情况评价医改效果。结果:医改后住院次均总费用较医改前有所增加,幅度为5.29%。次均药费与次均放射检查费医改后较医改前均有明显下降,降幅分别为7.62%和7.79%。而次均床位费,次均手术费和次均护理费用改革后较改革前均呈现出上升态势。原始构成比数据建立的成分数据GM(1,1)模型与成分数据残差GM(1,1)模型精度均达到86%以上。且最终还原后构成比数据预测值与真实费用构成比较,平均相对残差基本不超过5%,预测精度高。外推预测结果与真实医改费用构成情况比较后发现,由于医改政策的实施,药费、检查类费用占比明显降低;床位费占比有所升高;治疗类费用有逐渐上升趋势,且占比将超过未已改的情况;材料费也比未医改情况占比更高,且高出3%左右。结论:成分数据GM(1,1)模型及残差GM(1,1)模型对医疗费用结构的时序预测是合理、适用的,可进行外推预测。住院患者用药负担及大型设备检查负担有较大改善,医护人员劳动价值的体现有所提高,而材料费的控制应该成为医改降低医疗费用的关注点,避免出现医疗费用向材料费转移的现象。
Abstract
mu de :tan tao 2017nian chong qing shi yi gai shi shi hou yi liao zong fei yong ji ge yi liao xiang mu ci jun fei yong bian hua qing kuang ,ping jia cheng fen shu ju GM(1,1)mo xing dui yi liao fei yong jie gou shu ju de kuo yong xing yu ge li xing ,bing li yong mo xing yu ce zhi yu zhen shi yi gai hou yi liao fei yong gou cheng jin hang dui bi ,yi zeng ge ping jia yi gai xiao guo 。fang fa :yi chong qing shi yi gai shi shi shi jian (2017nian 9yue 9ri )wei jie dian ,shou ji chong qing shi yi gai qian yi nian ji yi gai hou ban nian de mou san jia yi yuan quan yuan zhu yuan bing li de yi liao fei yong shu ju 。wei pai chu ji jie xing bing chong bu tong dui yi liao fei yong de ying xiang ,bi jiao tong ji jie liu ge yue de yi gai qian hou ci jun fei yong 。bing jiang yi gai qian yi nian yi liao fei yong gou cheng shu ju jin hang cheng fen shu ju deng ju dui shu zhuai huan hou ,jian li cheng fen GM(1,1)mo xing yu cheng fen can cha GM(1,1)mo xing ,cai yong can cha jian yan fa dui mo xing jing du jin hang ping jia 。li yong mo xing yu ce le ru wei fa sheng yi gai de si ge yue yi liao fei yong gou cheng qing kuang ,yu zhen shi yi gai hou yi liao fei yong gou cheng jin hang dui bi 。zui zhong jie ge ci jun fei yong yu fei yong gou cheng qu shi qing kuang ping jia yi gai xiao guo 。jie guo :yi gai hou zhu yuan ci jun zong fei yong jiao yi gai qian you suo zeng jia ,fu du wei 5.29%。ci jun yao fei yu ci jun fang she jian cha fei yi gai hou jiao yi gai qian jun you ming xian xia jiang ,jiang fu fen bie wei 7.62%he 7.79%。er ci jun chuang wei fei ,ci jun shou shu fei he ci jun hu li fei yong gai ge hou jiao gai ge qian jun cheng xian chu shang sheng tai shi 。yuan shi gou cheng bi shu ju jian li de cheng fen shu ju GM(1,1)mo xing yu cheng fen shu ju can cha GM(1,1)mo xing jing du jun da dao 86%yi shang 。ju zui zhong hai yuan hou gou cheng bi shu ju yu ce zhi yu zhen shi fei yong gou cheng bi jiao ,ping jun xiang dui can cha ji ben bu chao guo 5%,yu ce jing du gao 。wai tui yu ce jie guo yu zhen shi yi gai fei yong gou cheng qing kuang bi jiao hou fa xian ,you yu yi gai zheng ce de shi shi ,yao fei 、jian cha lei fei yong zhan bi ming xian jiang di ;chuang wei fei zhan bi you suo sheng gao ;zhi liao lei fei yong you zhu jian shang sheng qu shi ,ju zhan bi jiang chao guo wei yi gai de qing kuang ;cai liao fei ye bi wei yi gai qing kuang zhan bi geng gao ,ju gao chu 3%zuo you 。jie lun :cheng fen shu ju GM(1,1)mo xing ji can cha GM(1,1)mo xing dui yi liao fei yong jie gou de shi xu yu ce shi ge li 、kuo yong de ,ke jin hang wai tui yu ce 。zhu yuan huan zhe yong yao fu dan ji da xing she bei jian cha fu dan you jiao da gai shan ,yi hu ren yuan lao dong jia zhi de ti xian you suo di gao ,er cai liao fei de kong zhi ying gai cheng wei yi gai jiang di yi liao fei yong de guan zhu dian ,bi mian chu xian yi liao fei yong xiang cai liao fei zhuai yi de xian xiang 。
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论文作者分别是来自重庆医科大学的陈倩，发表于刊物重庆医科大学2019-09-24论文，是一篇关于成分数据论文,等距对数比变换论文,模型论文,残差论文,模型论文,医疗费用结构论文,重庆医科大学2019-09-24论文的文章。本文可供学术参考使用，各位学者可以免费参考阅读下载，文章观点不代表本站观点，资料来自重庆医科大学2019-09-24论文网站，若本站收录的文献无意侵犯了您的著作版权，请联系我们删除。
标签：成分数据论文; 等距对数比变换论文; 模型论文; 残差论文; 医疗费用结构论文; 重庆医科大学2019-09-24论文;